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Oil Spikes After Middle East Attack, Fed Budget in Focus

DATE POSTED:June 13, 2019

After trading lower Tuesday and Wednesday, major U.S. indices are in the green today. Weekly labor report showed a slight gain in the number of Americans applying for unemployment, further adding to the speculation the Fed will cut rates this year. Oil futures rose after an incident in the Gulf of Oman while energy is also significantly up today. Look for Broadcom earnings after market close today and several notable U.S economic reports tomorrow: retail sales, industrial production, consumer sentiment index, business inventories. Overhead resistance for SPY is at $290 and we encourage our readers to avoid chasing near this number. We expect the market to remain between $286-$290 and encourage our readers to buy near $286. If the market breaks $290 for a couple of days we could see it retest 52 weeks high for the SPY. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

U.S.-China trade concerns seem to have eased off markets as major market-focus now turns to recent economic reports. With a slight spike in unemployment the last two weeks, a rate cut by the Fed in the next two FOMC meetings is now seeming more likely. Also in focus is the latest U.S. budget report which showed U.S. budget deficit expanded to $738.6 billion in 2019. This number is significantly larger than last year’s deficit data, despite revenue rising from the latest tariffs on imports. Next week, look for May housing data as well as FOMC decision with a two-day meeting wraps up on Wednesday. Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting.

Lululemon earnings released yesterday supported the stock with better than expected numbers, pushing shares up 2%. Broadcom is set to report quarterly earnings after the market closes today while next week’s earnings load remains light. Globally, Europen markets closed lower while Asian markets were modestly split. Two oil tankers were attacked and sank near Iran and the United Arab Emirates, reportedly. Several sailors were rescued by the  U.S. Navy. One of the tankers was headed to Japan further increasing tension. Crude oil numbers spiked following the attack. Speculation continues to mount that Iran will pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal. President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal last year, which was also signed by China, Russian, France, U.K., and Germany.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.66% moves to +5.41% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,936.96. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Lifetime Access to our BRAND NEW Vlad’s Portfolio Trading Service “Join me as I continue my run of 1,285% gains!” Vlad Karpel, CEO DO AS I DO… AS I DO IT WATCH LIVE AS I WORK THE MARKETS AND DO IT RISK-FREE THROUGHOUT THE DAY! Offer Expires At Midnight Tonight! We make money in every market.  Don’t miss our next big trade! Click Here to Sign Up Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On June 5th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Under Armour Inc (UAA). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

UAA entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $24.70 (± 0.16) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $24.95 in the second hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $24.45.

Friday Morning Featured Symbol

*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, HD. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured symbol for Friday is Home Depot Inc (HD). HD is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $202.22 at the time of publication, up 2.00% from the open with a +0.55% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $52.15 per barrel, up 1.197% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $10.87 at the time of publication, up 2.00% from the open. Vector figures show -0.16% today, which turns +1.79% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.58% at $1,344.50 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $126.6, up 1.00% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.06% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.02% at 2.10% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.56% at 2.60% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.02% moves to -0.85% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 0.75% at $16.03 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $15.67 with a vector of -3.15%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Lifetime Access to our BRAND NEW Vlad’s Portfolio Trading Service “Join me as I continue my run of 1,285% gains!” Vlad Karpel, CEO DO AS I DO… AS I DO IT WATCH LIVE AS I WORK THE MARKETS AND DO IT RISK-FREE THROUGHOUT THE DAY! Offer Expires At Midnight Tonight! We make money in every market.  Don’t miss our next big trade! Click Here to Sign Up